What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 45¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 47% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 45%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

James Cook III on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if James Cook III records 1,000 or more rushing yards in the 2026 Pro Football regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Playoff games do not count. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

45%

Median YES price across 344 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

90% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
45¢ (now)	2.4¢	$2.61	47.4%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
James Cook III	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Chase Brown	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Derrick Henry	96¢	96%	0.4¢	—	8%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Bijan Robinson	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Jahmyr Gibbs	83¢	83%	1.3¢	—	34%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Jayden Daniels	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Parker Washington	67¢	67%	2.1¢	—	66%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Courtland Sutton	43¢	43%	2.3¢	—	86%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Christian McCaffrey	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Jalen Hurts	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Xavier Worthy	39¢	39%	2.3¢	—	78%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Sam LaPorta	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Jonathan Taylor	89¢	89%	0.9¢	—	22%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Josh Allen	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Michael Pittman Jr.	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
De'Von Achane	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Kyle Pitts Sr.	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Bijan Robinson	94¢	94%	0.5¢	—	12%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Courtland Sutton	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Ashton Jeanty	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
George Kittle	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Jahmyr Gibbs	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Tyler Warren	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Omarion Hampton	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Travis Kelce	70¢	70%	2.0¢	—	60%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Christian McCaffrey	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Saquon Barkley	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Colston Loveland	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Tucker Kraft	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Jonathan Taylor	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Kenneth Walker III	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Trey McBride	83¢	83%	1.3¢	—	34%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Colston Loveland	23¢	23%	1.7¢	—	46%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
De'Von Achane	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Tyler Warren	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Jeremiyah Love	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Brock Bowers	81¢	81%	1.5¢	—	38%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Ashton Jeanty	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Trey McBride	47¢	47%	2.4¢	—	94%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC
Breece Hall	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Jan 25, 04:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 344 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.