What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 35¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $3.09.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 37% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 35%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Kirill Kaprizov on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Kirill Kaprizov records 40 or more goals in the 2026-27 NHL regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. If the 202627 NHL season is cancelled, suspended, or shortened, the market will settle based on the players final official statistics for the season. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)

35%

Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

70% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
35¢ (now)	2.2¢	$3.09	37.2%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Kirill Kaprizov	90¢	90%	0.9¢	—	20%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Jack Eichel	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Bo Horvat	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Cole Caufield	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Auston Matthews	60¢	60%	2.3¢	—	80%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Matthew Tkachuk	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Brady Tkachuk	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Jack Hughes	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Alex Tuch	41¢	41%	2.3¢	—	82%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
John Tavares	85¢	85%	1.2¢	—	30%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Adrian Kempe	37¢	37%	2.2¢	—	74%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Alex Ovechkin	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Brandon Hagel	31¢	31%	2.0¢	—	62%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Zach Hyman	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Matt Boldy	33¢	33%	2.1¢	—	66%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Alex DeBrincat	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Tim Stutzle	18¢	18%	1.4¢	—	36%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Nathan MacKinnon	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Martin Necas	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	52%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Leon Draisaitl	88¢	88%	1.0¢	—	24%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Leo Carlsson	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Dylan Larkin	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Will Smith	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
William Nylander	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Wyatt Johnston	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Tage Thompson	64¢	64%	2.2¢	—	72%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Steven Stamkos	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Sam Reinhart	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Pavel Dorofeyev	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Nikita Kucherov	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Mika Zibanejad	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Mark Scheifele	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Morgan Geekie	18¢	18%	1.4¢	—	36%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Macklin Celebrini	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Kyle Connor	76¢	76%	1.7¢	—	48%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Jason Robertson	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Jake Guentzel	58¢	58%	2.3¢	—	84%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Filip Forsberg	31¢	31%	2.0¢	—	62%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
David Pastrnak	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Dylan Guenther	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	52%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.