What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.66.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Lautaro Martinez on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Lautaro Martinez leads the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League in goals. Goals scored in the league phase, knockout phase play-offs, round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, and final all count; goals scored in the qualifying rounds do not count. If Lautaro Martinez ties with one or more other players for the most goals, Yes contract holders receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied players, rounded down to the nearest cent, per contract. Outcome sourced from UEFA.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 69 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.2¢	$4.66	2.2%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Lautaro Martinez	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Cody Gakpo	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Bradley Barcola	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Yan Diomande	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Michael Olise	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Jude Bellingham	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Karim Adeyemi	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Kai Havertz	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Ferran Torres	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Champions League Most Assists	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Matheus Cunha	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Bradley Barcola	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Antoine Semenyo	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Deniz Undav	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Marcus Rashford	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Kylian Mbappe	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Bukayo Saka	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Vinicius Junior	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Marcus Thuram	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Raphinha	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Victor Osimhen	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Ousmane Dembele	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Nicolas Jackson	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Lee Kangin	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Luis Diaz	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
David Neres	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Ermedin Demirovic	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Bryan Mbeumo	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Viktor Gyokeres	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Antonio Nusa	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Julian Alvarez	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Alex Baena	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Serhou Guirassy	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Nicolo Barella	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Hakan Calhanoglu	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Alexander Isak	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Nico Paz	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Vinicius Junior	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC
Arda Guler	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jun 20, 03:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 69 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.