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"GTA VI: The Album" First Week Sales on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the debut week sales for "Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album", according to Hits Daily Double, are 50,000 or more. Outcome sourced from the "Activity" column of the HITS TOP 50 list at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming once results are finalized for the album's debut week. If the album has not been released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle to No.

Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
68% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
66¢ (now)2.1¢$1.6168.1%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
"GTA VI: The Album" First Week Sales?84¢84%1.3¢—32%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
"GTA VI: The Album" First Week Sales?78¢78%1.6¢—44%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
"GTA VI: The Album" First Week Sales?41¢41%2.3¢—82%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
"GTA VI: The Album" First Week Sales?36¢36%2.2¢—72%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
"GTA VI: The Album" First Week Sales?66¢66%2.1¢—68%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
"GTA VI: The Album" First Week Sales?36¢36%2.2¢—72%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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