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GPT Sol 6.2+ Released on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if OpenAI releases a GPT model with a name or model identifier labeled Sol and numbered 6.2 or greater by November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from OpenAI. A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.

Market says (typical open contract)
81%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
81¢ (now)1.5¢$0.9082.5%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
GPT Sol 6.2+ Released?80¢80%1.5¢—40%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
GPT Sol 6.2+ Released?12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
GPT Sol 6.2+ Released?81¢81%1.5¢—38%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
GPT Sol 6.2+ Released?85¢85%1.2¢—30%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
GPT Sol 6.2+ Released?97¢97%0.3¢—6%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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