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Best Chinese AI Company end of November on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Alibaba is the Chinese company with the highest ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard on November 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different Chinese companies are tied for the highest rank, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company wh

Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)0.3¢$4.613.3%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?38¢38%2.2¢—76%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?14¢14%1.1¢—28%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?38¢38%2.2¢—76%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC
Best Chinese AI Company end of November?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Dec 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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