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Top AI Company this week on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Google has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on November 16, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/chat/text?scoring=raw). If multiple models from different companies are tied on rank, the model with the highest Score (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard) will be considered ranked higher. If a tie remains, the company whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabeti

Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)0.9¢$4.2810.9%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Top AI Company this week88¢88%1.0¢—24%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week11¢11%0.9¢—22%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week27¢27%1.9¢—54%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week9¢9%0.8¢—18%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week6¢6%0.5¢—12%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Top AI Company this week1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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