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Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Pete Hegseths departure as United States Secretary of War is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Pete Hegseth, the Department of War, and the White House. The departure will be considered to be announced when Pete Hegseth, the Department of War, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Hegseth has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Secretary of War. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified persons resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
42¢ (now)2.3¢$2.7644.3%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Pete Hegseth Announced Out as Secretary of War?42¢42%2.3¢—84%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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