What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 98¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $0.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 98% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 98%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

NBA Finals Matchup on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Indiana Pacers and the Golden State Warriors are the two teams playing in the 2027 NBA Finals. Outcome sourced from NBA.

Market says (typical open contract)

98%

Median YES price across 56 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%
98¢ (now)	0.2¢	$0.10	98.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	90¢	90%	0.9¢	—	20%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	92¢	92%	0.7¢	—	16%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	91¢	91%	0.8¢	—	18%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	91¢	91%	0.8¢	—	18%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	91¢	91%	0.8¢	—	18%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	92¢	92%	0.7¢	—	16%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC
NBA Finals Matchup	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Jul 03, 03:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 56 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.