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Will the Alexis Galarneau cover -1.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Alexis Galarneau covers a -1.5 game spread across the full Alexis Galarneau vs Stefan Kozlov ATP match scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 10:00AM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match does not begin due to a walkover, withdrawal, or cancellation, the market will settle to the last fair market price. If a player retires or is disqualified during the match and the market can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed, the market will settle accordingly; otherwise the market will settle to the last fair market price. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 60¢ (now) | 2.3¢ | $1.90 | 62.3% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover -1.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover 1.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 55¢ | 55% | 2.4¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover -4.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover 4.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 54¢ | 54% | 2.4¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover -7.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover 7.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 56¢ | 56% | 2.3¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover -1.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 59¢ | 59% | 2.3¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Will the Alexis Galarneau cover 1.5 vs the Stefan Kozlov in Alexis Galarneau vs. Stefan Kozlov? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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