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Will the Utah cover -30.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Utah covers a -30.5 point spread in the Utah vs Arizona college football game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 7:30PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 77 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 57¢ (now) | 2.3¢ | $2.04 | 59.3% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Utah cover -30.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 10¢ | 10% | 0.8¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -28.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -27.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 9¢ | 9% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -23.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 11¢ | 11% | 0.9¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -21.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 13¢ | 13% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -20.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 15¢ | 15% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -19.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 16¢ | 16% | 1.2¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -17.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 18¢ | 18% | 1.4¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -16.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 19¢ | 19% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -14.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 22¢ | 22% | 1.6¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -13.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 24¢ | 24% | 1.7¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -10.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 28¢ | 28% | 1.9¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -9.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 31¢ | 31% | 2.0¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -8.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 32¢ | 32% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -7.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -6.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 39¢ | 39% | 2.3¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -5.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 41¢ | 41% | 2.3¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -4.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 43¢ | 43% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -3.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 44¢ | 44% | 2.3¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -2.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 52¢ | 52% | 2.4¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover -1.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 56¢ | 56% | 2.3¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 1.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 2.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 3.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 69¢ | 69% | 2.0¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 4.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 71¢ | 71% | 2.0¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 5.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 74¢ | 74% | 1.9¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 6.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 76¢ | 76% | 1.7¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 7.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 80¢ | 80% | 1.5¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 8.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 82¢ | 82% | 1.4¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 9.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 83¢ | 83% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 10.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 13.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 89¢ | 89% | 0.9¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 14.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 90¢ | 90% | 0.8¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 16.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 93¢ | 93% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 17.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 94¢ | 94% | 0.5¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 19.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 20.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 21.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 23.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
| Will the Utah cover 27.5 vs the Arizona in Utah vs. Arizona? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 29, 05:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 77 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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