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Will the Lithuania cover -2.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Lithuania covers a -2.5 goal spread at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Lithuania vs Liechtenstein UEFA Nations League match scheduled for November 16, 2026 at 12:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UEFA Nations League.

Market says (typical open contract)
99%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
99¢ (now)0.1¢$0.0599.1%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the Lithuania cover -2.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover -1.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover 1.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover 2.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover -2.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover -1.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover 1.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover 2.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover -2.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover -1.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover 1.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC
Will the Lithuania cover 2.5 vs the Liechtenstein in LTU vs LIE?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 30, 17:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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