What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 80¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $0.95.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 82% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 80%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Exact Margin of Victory: Memphis by 25+ on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Memphis wins by a margin of 25+ points in the Memphis vs South Florida college football game scheduled for November 12, 2026 at 8:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

80%

Median YES price across 49 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

40% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
80¢ (now)	1.5¢	$0.95	81.5%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Exact Margin of Victory: Memphis by 25+	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Memphis by 13-18	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Memphis by 19-24	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Memphis by 7-12	22¢	22%	1.6¢	—	44%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: South Florida by 1-6	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: South Florida by 19-24	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Memphis by 1-6	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: South Florida by 25+	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: South Florida by 7-12	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: South Florida by 13-18	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
First Team to Score Points: South Florida	59¢	59%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Neither Team	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Memphis	72¢	72%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Memphis	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: South Florida	57¢	57%	2.3¢	—	86%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Neither Team	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Overtime?: Over 0.5	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns: Over 0.5	39¢	39%	2.3¢	—	78%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 200.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 250.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 225.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 250.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 225.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Yards: Over 200.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Rushing Touchdowns: Over 2.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Rushing Touchdowns: Over 1.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Rushing Touchdowns: Over 0.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Rushing Touchdowns: Over 0.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Rushing Touchdowns: Over 1.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Rushing Touchdowns: Over 2.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 2.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 0.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC
Team Total Passing Touchdowns: Over 0.5	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 06:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 49 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.