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Will Franz Wagner record at least 10 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Franz Wagner records 10 or more points in the ORL Magic vs SAC Kings professional basketball game scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 10:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. The listed player must participate in the game by taking the court for any amount of playing time; otherwise, the market will settle to the last fair market price. The market will settle based on the official box score at the conclusion of the game. For purposes of this market, stat corrections enforced after settlement will not count. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within
Market says (typical open contract)
41%
Median YES price across 220 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 41¢ (now) | 2.3¢ | $2.80 | 43.3% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 10 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 15 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 93¢ | 93% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 20 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 74¢ | 74% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 25 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 49¢ | 49% | 2.4¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 30 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 25¢ | 25% | 1.8¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 35 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 11¢ | 11% | 0.9¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 40 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 2 total rebounds in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 4 total rebounds in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 87¢ | 87% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 6 total rebounds in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 8 total rebounds in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 33¢ | 33% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 10 total rebounds in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 16¢ | 16% | 1.3¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 12 total rebounds in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 2 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 21¢ | 21% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 4 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 6 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 85¢ | 85% | 1.2¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 8 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 56¢ | 56% | 2.3¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 10 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 12 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 17¢ | 17% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 14 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 16 assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 1 three-point field goals made in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 77¢ | 77% | 1.7¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 2 three-point field goals made in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 44¢ | 44% | 2.3¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 3 three-point field goals made in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 20¢ | 20% | 1.5¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 1 steals in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 78¢ | 78% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 2 steals in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 42¢ | 42% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 3 steals in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 19¢ | 19% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 30 combined points, rebounds and assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 88¢ | 88% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 35 combined points, rebounds and assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 71¢ | 71% | 2.0¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 40 combined points, rebounds and assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 50¢ | 50% | 2.4¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 45 combined points, rebounds and assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 29¢ | 29% | 2.0¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 50 combined points, rebounds and assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 14¢ | 14% | 1.1¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner record at least 55 combined points, rebounds and assists in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. record at least 10 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. record at least 15 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 91¢ | 91% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. record at least 20 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 76¢ | 76% | 1.7¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. record at least 25 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 55¢ | 55% | 2.4¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. record at least 30 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 32¢ | 32% | 2.1¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. record at least 35 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 14¢ | 14% | 1.1¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Darius Acuff Jr. record at least 40 points in ORL Magic vs. SAC Kings? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 25, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 220 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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