What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 49¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.42.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 49%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Exact Margin of Victory: IND Colts by 15+ on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Indianapolis Colts wins by a margin of 15+ points in the Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans professional football game scheduled for November 19, 2026 at 8:15PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

49%

Median YES price across 53 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

98% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
49¢ (now)	2.4¢	$2.42	51.4%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Exact Margin of Victory: IND Colts by 15+	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: IND Colts by 7-14	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: IND Colts by 1-6	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Tie	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: HOU Texans by 1-6	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: HOU Texans by 7-14	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: HOU Texans by 15+	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Indianapolis Colts	91¢	91%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Houston Texans	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Neither Team	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Indianapolis Colts	91¢	91%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Houston Texans	94¢	94%	0.5¢	—	12%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Neither Team	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 250.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 350.5	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 450.5	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 250.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 350.5	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 450.5	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns: Over 0.5	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Total Successful Two-Point Conversions: Over 0.5	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Will there be a Safety?: Over 0.5	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Indianapolis Colts	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Houston Texans	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Neither Team	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Indianapolis Colts	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Houston Texans	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Neither Team	30¢	30%	2.0¢	—	60%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Indianapolis Colts	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Houston Texans	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Neither Team	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Indianapolis Colts	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Houston Texans	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Neither Team	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 04, 06:15 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 53 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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