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Ja'Marr Chase Regular Season Receptions on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Ja'Marr Chase records over 150.5 receptions in the 2026 Pro Football regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
Market says (typical open contract)
37%
Median YES price across 103 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 37¢ (now) | 2.2¢ | $2.99 | 39.2% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase Regular Season Receptions | 13¢ | 13% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ja'Marr Chase Regular Season Receptions | 22¢ | 22% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ja'Marr Chase Regular Season Receptions | 19¢ | 19% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ja'Marr Chase Regular Season Receptions | 62¢ | 62% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Ja'Marr Chase Regular Season Receptions | 74¢ | 74% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receptions | 55¢ | 55% | 2.4¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receptions | 67¢ | 67% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receptions | 80¢ | 80% | 1.5¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receptions | 93¢ | 93% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba Regular Season Receptions | 95¢ | 95% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson Regular Season Receptions | 11¢ | 11% | 0.9¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson Regular Season Receptions | 11¢ | 11% | 0.9¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson Regular Season Receptions | 18¢ | 18% | 1.4¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson Regular Season Receptions | 67¢ | 67% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson Regular Season Receptions | 88¢ | 88% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Puka Nacua Regular Season Receptions | 9¢ | 9% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Puka Nacua Regular Season Receptions | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Puka Nacua Regular Season Receptions | 33¢ | 33% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Puka Nacua Regular Season Receptions | 57¢ | 57% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Puka Nacua Regular Season Receptions | 92¢ | 92% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Travis Kelce Regular Season Receptions | 16¢ | 16% | 1.3¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Travis Kelce Regular Season Receptions | 22¢ | 22% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Travis Kelce Regular Season Receptions | 18¢ | 18% | 1.4¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Travis Kelce Regular Season Receptions | 70¢ | 70% | 2.0¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Travis Kelce Regular Season Receptions | 82¢ | 82% | 1.4¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 13¢ | 13% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 19¢ | 19% | 1.5¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 72¢ | 72% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 79¢ | 79% | 1.6¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 90¢ | 90% | 0.9¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CeeDee Lamb Regular Season Receptions | 59¢ | 59% | 2.3¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CeeDee Lamb Regular Season Receptions | 72¢ | 72% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CeeDee Lamb Regular Season Receptions | 87¢ | 87% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| CeeDee Lamb Regular Season Receptions | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| A.J. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| A.J. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| A.J. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| A.J. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 10¢ | 10% | 0.9¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| A.J. Brown Regular Season Receptions | 16¢ | 16% | 1.3¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
| Brock Bowers Regular Season Receptions | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 25, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 103 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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