What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 38¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.94.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 40% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 38%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Exact Margin of Victory: SF 49ers by 15+ on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if San Francisco 49ers wins by a margin of 15+ points in the San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys professional football game scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 4:25PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Overtime is included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

38%

Median YES price across 59 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

76% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
38¢ (now)	2.2¢	$2.94	40.2%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Exact Margin of Victory: SF 49ers by 15+	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: SF 49ers by 7-14	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	52%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: SF 49ers by 1-6	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: Tie	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: DAL Cowboys by 1-6	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: DAL Cowboys by 7-14	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Exact Margin of Victory: DAL Cowboys by 15+	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score Points: San Francisco 49ers	64¢	64%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Dallas Cowboys	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score Points: Neither Team	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	8%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: San Francisco 49ers	65¢	65%	2.2¢	—	70%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Dallas Cowboys	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
First Team to Score a Touchdown: Neither Team	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	8%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 250.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 350.5	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 450.5	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 250.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 350.5	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Offensive Yards: Over 450.5	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns: Over 0.5	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Total Successful Two-Point Conversions: Over 0.5	38¢	38%	2.2¢	—	76%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 0.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 1.5	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Team Total Field Goals Made: Over 2.5	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Will there be a Safety?: Over 0.5	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 7 Points: San Francisco 49ers	67¢	67%	2.1¢	—	66%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Dallas Cowboys	56¢	56%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 7 Points: Neither Team	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 14 Points: San Francisco 49ers	75¢	75%	1.8¢	—	50%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Dallas Cowboys	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 14 Points: Neither Team	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 21 Points: San Francisco 49ers	68¢	68%	2.1¢	—	64%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Dallas Cowboys	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 21 Points: Neither Team	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 28 Points: San Francisco 49ers	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Dallas Cowboys	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC
Race to 28 Points: Neither Team	45¢	45%	2.4¢	—	90%	Nov 30, 02:25 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 59 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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