What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 53¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.23.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 55% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 53%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will Bilal Hasan win by KO, TKO, or DQ in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Bilal Hasan wins by KO/TKO/DQ in the Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule UFC fight scheduled for November 14. If the fight is cancelled or postponed by more than two days, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UFC.

Market says (typical open contract)

53%

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

94% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
53¢ (now)	2.4¢	$2.23	55.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Bilal Hasan win by KO, TKO, or DQ in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan win by submission in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan win by decision in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule	79¢	79%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Luis Gurule win by KO, TKO, or DQ in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Luis Gurule win by submission in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Luis Gurule win by decision in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule end in a draw?	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will the fight go the distance in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule end by KO, TKO, or DQ?	85¢	85%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule end by submission?	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule end by decision?	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule end before round 2?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule end before round 3?	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan win in Round 1?	49¢	49%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan win in Round 2?	48¢	48%	2.4¢	—	96%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan win in Round 3?	44¢	44%	2.3¢	—	88%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Luis Gurule win in Round 1?	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Luis Gurule win in Round 2?	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Luis Gurule win in Round 3?	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC
Will Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule go to a decision, draw, or no contest?	69¢	69%	2.0¢	—	62%	Nov 29, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.