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Will Washington win the first half on Polymarket US
This market will settle to the winner of the first half in the Washington vs Michigan State college football game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 4:15PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If both teams score the same number of points in the first half, the market will settle to Tie. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 42¢ (now) | 2.3¢ | $2.76 | 44.3% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Washington win the first half? | 56¢ | 56% | 2.3¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will the first half end tied? | 13¢ | 13% | 1.1¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Michigan State win the first half? | 41¢ | 41% | 2.3¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Michigan State win the second half? | 57¢ | 57% | 2.3¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Washington win the second half? | 70¢ | 70% | 2.0¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will the second half end tied? | 26¢ | 26% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will the first quarter end tied? | 26¢ | 26% | 1.8¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Washington win the first quarter? | 49¢ | 49% | 2.4¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Michigan State win the first quarter? | 38¢ | 38% | 2.2¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Michigan State win the second quarter? | 42¢ | 42% | 2.3¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will the second quarter end tied? | 17¢ | 17% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Washington win the second quarter? | 52¢ | 52% | 2.4¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Washington win the third quarter? | 48¢ | 48% | 2.4¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Michigan State win the third quarter? | 40¢ | 40% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will the third quarter end tied? | 25¢ | 25% | 1.8¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Michigan State win the fourth quarter? | 59¢ | 59% | 2.3¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will Washington win the fourth quarter? | 67¢ | 67% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
| Will the fourth quarter end tied? | 23¢ | 23% | 1.7¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 29, 02:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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