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Will CGY Flames lead after regulation of CGY vs LAK on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner at the end of regulation (60 minutes) in the CGY Flames vs LAK Kings NHL game scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 10:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the game is tied after regulation (60 minutes), the market will settle to Tie. Overtime and any shootout are not included if played. If the game is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)
95%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
95¢ (now)0.5¢$0.2495.5%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will CGY Flames lead after regulation of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will CGY vs LAK be tied after regulation?37¢37%2.2¢—74%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will LAK Kings lead after regulation of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will CGY Flames win the first period of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will the first period of CGY vs LAK be tied?47¢47%2.4¢—94%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will LAK Kings win the first period of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will CGY Flames win the second period of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will the second period of CGY vs LAK be tied?37¢37%2.2¢—74%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will LAK Kings win the second period of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will CGY Flames win the third period of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will the third period of CGY vs LAK be tied?37¢37%2.2¢—74%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC
Will LAK Kings win the third period of CGY vs LAK?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 29, 08:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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