What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 12¢, about 1¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.18.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 13% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 12%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Will Bulgaria win against Iceland in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 13, 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Bulgaria vs Iceland UEFA Nations League match scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 2:45PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is tied following 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market will settle to Tie. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from UEFA.

Market says (typical open contract)

12%

Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

24% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)	1.0¢	$4.18	13.0%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Bulgaria win against Iceland in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 13, 2026?	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will the UEFA Nations League match Bulgaria vs Iceland scheduled for Nov 13, 2026 end in a draw?	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Iceland win against Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League match scheduled for Nov 13, 2026?	53¢	53%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish Draw 0-0?	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish BUL wins 1-0?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish ISL wins 1-0?	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish Draw 1-1?	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish BUL wins 2-0?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish ISL wins 2-0?	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish BUL wins 2-1?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish ISL wins 2-1?	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish Draw 2-2?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish BUL wins 3-0?	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish ISL wins 3-0?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish BUL wins 3-1?	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish ISL wins 3-1?	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish BUL wins 3-2?	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish ISL wins 3-2?	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL finish Other?	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Bulgaria lead Iceland at halftime?	20¢	20%	1.5¢	—	40%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will BUL vs ISL be tied at halftime?	47¢	47%	2.4¢	—	94%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Iceland lead Bulgaria at halftime?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Bulgaria win the second half against Iceland?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will the second half of BUL vs ISL be a draw?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC
Will Iceland win the second half against Bulgaria?	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 27, 19:45 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.