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Will Club Nacional de Football win against Albion FC in the Primera Uruguay match scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to the winner at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time in the Club Nacional de Football vs Albion FC Primera Uruguay match scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 6:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the match is tied following 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market will settle to Tie. If the match is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from AUF.

Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)1.6¢$3.7123.6%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Club Nacional de Football win against Albion FC in the Primera Uruguay match scheduled for Nov 14, 2026?67¢67%2.1¢—66%0Nov 28, 23:00 UTC
Will the Primera Uruguay match Club Nacional de Football vs Albion FC scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 end in a draw?22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Nov 28, 23:00 UTC
Will Albion FC win against Club Nacional de Football in the Primera Uruguay match scheduled for Nov 14, 2026?15¢15%1.2¢—30%0Nov 28, 23:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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