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Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Bank of Israel decreases the interest rate by any amount between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Bank of Israel. Rate changes effected as part of scheduled monetary policy meetings or announcements, or during unscheduled or emergency meetings will both qualify. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change is the change to the upper bound.

Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
48% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
24¢ (now)1.7¢$3.6125.7%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?34¢34%2.1¢—68%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?25¢25%1.8¢—50%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?24¢24%1.7¢—48%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?14¢14%1.1¢—28%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?92¢92%0.7¢—16%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?10¢10%0.9¢—20%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Which Central Banks Will Cut by Dec. 31?29¢29%2.0¢—58%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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