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Which Songs Will Be Billboard #1 in November on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Housewife by Tate McRae is the #1 song on any Billboard Hot 100 chart dated in November 2026. Outcome sourced from Billboard. Billboard typically updates the Billboard Hot 100 chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday). Under this framework, the charts dated November 7, November 14, November 21, and November 28 would qualify.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $4.18 | 13.0% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which Songs Will Be Billboard #1 in November? | 12¢ | 12% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Dec 09, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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