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Who Will Have a #1 Song in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Morgan Wallen has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 on any Billboard Hot 100 chart released after Contract Issuance and dated in 2026. Outcome sourced from Billboard. Billboard typically updates the Billboard Hot 100 chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday). Under this framework, the final relevant chart would be the chart dated December 26, 2026. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by m

Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)0.4¢$4.564.4%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Who Will Have a #1 Song in 2026?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 10, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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