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CPI YoY in October on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if U.S. inflation, before seasonal adjustment, over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 (CPI YoY) is above 4.3%. Outcome sourced from BLS. Settlement is based on the Consumer Price Index release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), currently scheduled for release on November 10, 2026. Any subsequent revisions to this figure will not be considered for settlement purposes. If the BLS does not publish CPI YoY for October 2026 on the Consumer Price Index scheduled release date, the first figure officially published by BLS for CPI YoY in October 2026 will be used for settlement. If no qualifying figure is published within three months of the

Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
36% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)1.4¢$3.9019.4%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
CPI YoY in October8¢8%0.7¢—16%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October8¢8%0.7¢—16%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October7¢7%0.6¢—14%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October22¢22%1.6¢—44%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October68¢68%2.1¢—64%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October64¢64%2.2¢—72%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October29¢29%2.0¢—58%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October18¢18%1.4¢—36%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC
CPI YoY in October5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Nov 25, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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