PredictMeNot
Theme

Markets › Polymarket US › Politics

Senate Combo: Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Democratic Party candidates win the 2026 midterm elections for US Senator from Iowa, South Carolina and Alaska. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction. A Republican Party candidate means the Republican Party nominee or, in Alaska, a representative of the Republican Party. A Democratic Party candidate means the Democratic Party nominee or, in Alaska, a representative of the Democratic Party. If an independent or third-party candidate wins any of these elections, this market will settle to No. Note

Market says (typical open contract)
99%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
99¢ (now)0.1¢$0.0599.1%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Senate Combo: Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC
Senate Combo: Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska45¢45%2.4¢—90%0Apr 01, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.