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Who Will Announce a Presidential Run Before 2028 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Elise Stefanik announces they will run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from public announcements and communications from Elise Stefanik. To qualify, Elise Stefanik, or their authorized representatives, must publicly and unambiguously declare that Elise Stefanik will be a candidate in the 2028 United States Presidential election, including a run for a party's nomination. Official candidacy filing is not required. Conditional, non-definitive, or exploratory statements do not qualify, including statements that Elise Stefanik is considering or open to a run, l

Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
94¢ (now)0.5¢$0.2994.5%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Who Will Announce a Presidential Run Before 2028?94¢94%0.5¢—12%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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