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US Tariff Revenue in FY27 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the fiscal-year-to-date total of net customs duties receipts reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury in the Monthly Treasury Statement for September 2027 is greater than or equal to $250,000,000,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. This market settles based on the fiscal-year-to-date net receipts for Customs Duties reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement, currently in Table 4, viewable at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/. Each month's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the U.S. Department of the Treasury does not publish the fiscal-year-to-d

Market says (typical open contract)
62%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
62¢ (now)2.2¢$1.8064.2%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
US Tariff Revenue in FY27?62¢62%2.2¢—76%0Oct 28, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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