PredictMeNot
Theme

Markets › Polymarket US › Geopolitics

What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the United States and Iran sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States, Iran, and the officially released text of the instrument. A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify. The instrument must require the dilution

Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
24% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)1.0¢$4.1813.0%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026?12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.