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What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the United States and Iran sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that commits Iran to surrender any quantity of enriched uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the United States, Iran, and the officially released text of the instrument. A qualifying written instrument must explicitly commit Iran to the transfer of a portion or all of its enriched uranium stockpile outside of Iranian territory and into the custody of an entity other than Iran. Sales, or other arrangements in which Iran is compensated for such a transfer, will qualify. The commitment must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemente

Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)0.5¢$4.466.5%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026?6¢6%0.5¢—12%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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