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2027 French Presidential Election Winner on Polymarket US

If David Lisnard wins the 2027 French Presidential Election, including any potential runoff, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified from relevant government authorities. In the event that the 2027 French Presidential Election is rescheduled, this market will settle based on the results of the next French Presidential Election to be held within two years of April 18, 2027.

Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)0.3¢$4.613.3%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2027 French Presidential Election Winner14¢14%1.1¢—28%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner50¢50%2.4¢—100%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner9¢9%0.8¢—18%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC
2027 French Presidential Election Winner13¢13%1.1¢—26%0Apr 26, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.