What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.66.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Politics

2028 US Presidential Election Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Michelle Obama wins the 2028 United States Presidential election. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The election winner is determined by electoral college votes. If no individual receives a majority of electoral college votes, this market will settle based on the first person formally selected, in a non-acting capacity, to assume the Presidency of the United States for the presidential term beginning after the 2028 United States presidential election under the subsequent constitutional process.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.2¢	$4.66	2.2%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	8%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	22¢	22%	1.6¢	—	44%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 US Presidential Election Winner	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Nov 22, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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