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Who will be arrested in 2026 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Barack Obama is arrested between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from relevant law enforcement authorities. A qualifying arrest refers to the specified person being taken into physical custody, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) they are criminally booked or processed; (ii) they are taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) they are held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) they are transported to a police station,

Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)0.4¢$4.564.4%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Who will be arrested in 2026?3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?9¢9%0.8¢—18%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?6¢6%0.5¢—12%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?5¢5%0.5¢—10%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?4¢4%0.4¢—8%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Who will be arrested in 2026?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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