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How Many Honey Deuces Will Be Sold at the 2026 US Open on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the total number of Honey Deuce cocktails sold at the 2026 US Open is at least 1,050,000. The figure includes all Honey Deuce cocktails sold across the 2026 US Open including Fan Week. If the USTA does not publish official Honey Deuce sales figures for the 2026 US Open by November 13 2026 at 11:59 PM (ET) the market will settle at the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from the United States Tennis Association.

Market says (typical open contract)
96%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
96¢ (now)0.4¢$0.1996.4%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
How Many Honey Deuces Will Be Sold at the 2026 US Open?96¢96%0.4¢—8%0Nov 14, 04:00 UTC
How Many Honey Deuces Will Be Sold at the 2026 US Open?95¢95%0.5¢—10%0Nov 14, 04:00 UTC
How Many Honey Deuces Will Be Sold at the 2026 US Open?93¢93%0.6¢—14%0Nov 14, 04:00 UTC
How Many Honey Deuces Will Be Sold at the 2026 US Open?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 14, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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