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Any State Enacts Vaccine Mandate Ban on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if any U.S. state enacts legislation banning vaccine mandates between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from relevant state legislative authorities. Legislation banning vaccine mandates refers to a bill, act, statute, joint resolution, or equivalent legislative instrument that prohibits any government, school, employer, or business within the state from requiring a person to receive one or more vaccinations as a condition of employment, enrollment, entry, or receipt of services. A prohibition qualifies even if subject to exceptions. Legislation that solely expands religious, medical, or philosophical exemptions to an existin

Market says (typical open contract)
19%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
19¢ (now)1.5¢$3.8520.5%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Any State Enacts Vaccine Mandate Ban?16¢16%1.3¢—32%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Any State Enacts Vaccine Mandate Ban?19¢19%1.5¢—38%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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