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Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Oscar Puente is the first individual to formally assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain as part of government formation following the next Spanish general election. Outcome sourced from the Government of Spain. Any acting, interim, or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the settlement of this market. If the next Spanish general election takes place, and a new election is called prior to any individual formally assuming the office of Prime Minister of Spain, this market will settle based on the next individual to assume the office as part of government formation following the new election before Expiration. For full rules, see: https://www.

Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
45¢ (now)2.4¢$2.6147.4%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election45¢45%2.4¢—90%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election45¢45%2.4¢—90%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election45¢45%2.4¢—90%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election45¢45%2.4¢—90%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election45¢45%2.4¢—90%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election14¢14%1.1¢—28%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election19¢19%1.5¢—38%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC
Prime Minister of Spain After the Next Election94¢94%0.5¢—12%0Mar 16, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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