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US Net Migration in 2026 on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if annual net international migration to the United States, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau for the latest twelve-month period in its Vintage 2026 National and State Population Estimates, is greater than or equal to 1,000,000. Outcome sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau. This market settles based on the U.S. Census Bureau's National and State Population Estimates, currently published in the "Components of Change" section of https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-national-total.html. Each vintage's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not publish annual net in
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ (now) | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.