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Next James Bond Actor on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if it is officially announced by Amazon MGM Studios, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, that Harris Dickinson has been cast to play James Bond in the next official James Bond film. Only the first official announcement of the actor cast as the primary James Bond character counts; if Harris Dickinson is announced and later withdraws or is replaced, or the film is delayed, cancelled or never released, the market will still settle to Yes. A supporting appearance as James Bond (e.g., a flashback portrayal) does not count, and statements by Harris Dickinson, their representatives or any other third party do not count unless confirmed by an official announcement. If a

Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
49¢ (now)2.4¢$2.4251.4%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?48¢48%2.4¢—96%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
Next James Bond Actor?49¢49%2.4¢—98%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.