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Next Senator in Blackburn's Tennessee Seat on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if Tim Burchett is the next person, other than Marsha Blackburn, to hold the United States Senate seat from Tennessee currently held by Marsha Blackburn (Class I) by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from the US Senate. A person appointed or elected to the seat will be considered to hold it once they have been sworn in. Interim, acting, or other temporary Senators will qualify. If no person other than Marsha Blackburn has held the seat by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle to No. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20NPHC%20-%20(2026.07.07).pdf
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ (now) | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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