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2028 U.S. Senate Election Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2028 United States general election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities, and the United States Senate. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chambers voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and wins the Vice Presidency in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected Presid

Market says (typical open contract)
84%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
84¢ (now)1.3¢$0.7685.3%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2028 U.S. Senate Election Winner14¢14%1.2¢—29%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 U.S. Senate Election Winner84¢84%1.3¢—32%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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