Markets › Polymarket US › Macro
How Low Will 30-Year Mortgage Get by Dec. 31 on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if any weekly 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage average released by Freddie Mac after Contract Issuance, for a week dated on or before December 31, 2026, is less than or equal to 6.70%. Outcome sourced from Freddie Mac. This market settles based on the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage average published weekly in Freddie Macs Primary Mortgage Market Survey, viewable at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Each week's figure is taken as first published; later revisions will not be considered. If Freddie Mac does not publish complete data for the specified period by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will settle based on the data published up to that point. For full r
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $3.94 | 18.3% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How Low Will 30-Year Mortgage Get by Dec. 31? | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
| How Low Will 30-Year Mortgage Get by Dec. 31? | 12¢ | 12% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
| How Low Will 30-Year Mortgage Get by Dec. 31? | 17¢ | 17% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
| How Low Will 30-Year Mortgage Get by Dec. 31? | 91¢ | 91% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
| How Low Will 30-Year Mortgage Get by Dec. 31? | 96¢ | 96% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 15, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.