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What Will Elon's Net Worth Hit By December 31 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Elon Musk's net worth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, is greater than or equal to $2 trillion at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index figures are updated after the close of every trading day in New York.

Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
24% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)1.0¢$4.1813.0%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
What Will Elon's Net Worth Hit By December 31?2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
What Will Elon's Net Worth Hit By December 31?1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
What Will Elon's Net Worth Hit By December 31?12¢12%1.0¢—24%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
What Will Elon's Net Worth Hit By December 31?16¢16%1.3¢—32%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC
What Will Elon's Net Worth Hit By December 31?36¢36%2.2¢—72%0Jan 15, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.