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California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Steve Hilton receives the most valid votes of any candidate in Fresno County in the 2026 California Governor election. Outcome sourced from the Government of California. Vote totals will be inclusive of all valid votes cast in Fresno County, as reflected in the certified results from the Government of California. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in Fresno County, Yes contract holders for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.

Market says (typical open contract)
89%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
22% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
89¢ (now)0.9¢$0.5289.9%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner6¢6%0.5¢—12%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC
California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner89¢89%0.9¢—22%0Jan 15, 00:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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