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2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Ted Cruz receives the most valid votes of any candidate in the Iowa Republican primary, caucus, or other official process by which the Iowa public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. Outcome sourced from the Iowa Republican Party. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates. If multiple candidates tie for the most votes in the specified electoral contest, Yes contract holders for each tied candidate receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied c

Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)0.3¢$4.613.3%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner6¢6%0.6¢—13%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner21¢21%1.6¢—42%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner8¢8%0.7¢—15%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner25¢25%1.8¢—51%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC
2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Nov 22, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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