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Fed Decision in December on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more at the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.

Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)0.3¢$4.613.3%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Fed Decision in December1¢1%0.1¢—2%0Dec 24, 04:00 UTC
Fed Decision in December2¢2%0.2¢—4%0Dec 24, 04:00 UTC
Fed Decision in December11¢11%0.9¢—22%0Dec 24, 04:00 UTC
Fed Decision in December87¢87%1.1¢—26%0Dec 24, 04:00 UTC
Fed Decision in December3¢3%0.3¢—6%0Dec 24, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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