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Will US Rents Fall in 2027 on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for rent of primary residence, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, from December 2026 to December 2027, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release for December 2027, is less than 0.0 percent. Outcome sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market settles based on the unadjusted 12-month percent change for rent of primary residence published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Consumer Price Index release, viewable at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm. Each month's figure is taken as first publish

Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 0 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢ (now)2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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