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Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal on Polymarket US

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, according to IMF PortWatch, is greater than or equal to 60 for any day between June 22 and December 31, this market settles to Yes. Outcome verified by IMF PortWatch. This market will settle as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If IMF PortWatch publishes data which is clearly erroneous (e.g., a typographic mistake or other clerical error), settlement may be delayed pending correction or confirmation by

Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)0.8¢$4.329.8%
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal?9¢9%0.8¢—18%0Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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