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Oscar Nominees: Best Picture on Polymarket US
This market will settle to Yes if I Love Boosters is officially nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Oscars. Outcome sourced from Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $4.32 | 9.8% |
| 30¢ | 2.0¢ | $3.32 | 32.0% |
| 50¢ | 2.4¢ | $2.38 | 52.4% |
| 70¢ | 2.0¢ | $1.43 | 72.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.47 | 90.9% |
Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 20¢ | 20% | 1.5¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 12¢ | 12% | 1.0¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 7¢ | 7% | 0.6¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 60¢ | 60% | 2.3¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 6¢ | 6% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 4¢ | 4% | 0.4¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 8¢ | 8% | 0.7¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 10¢ | 10% | 0.9¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 22¢ | 22% | 1.6¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 35¢ | 35% | 2.2¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 17¢ | 17% | 1.3¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 3¢ | 3% | 0.3¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 5¢ | 5% | 0.5¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 9¢ | 9% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 9¢ | 9% | 0.8¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 72¢ | 72% | 1.9¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 18¢ | 18% | 1.4¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 46¢ | 46% | 2.4¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 34¢ | 34% | 2.1¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 24¢ | 24% | 1.7¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 71¢ | 71% | 2.0¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 33¢ | 33% | 2.1¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 94¢ | 94% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 94¢ | 94% | 0.5¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
| Oscar Nominees: Best Picture | 84¢ | 84% | 1.3¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Feb 15, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.