What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 24¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $3.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 26% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 24%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Climate

Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 10 on Polymarket US

Will the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) in San Francisco for 2026-11-10 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) be less than or equal to 68F? Outcome verified from NWS Climatological Report.

Market says (typical open contract)

24%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

48% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
24¢ (now)	1.7¢	$3.61	25.7%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 10?	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Nov 11, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 10?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 11, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 10?	37¢	37%	2.2¢	—	74%	Nov 11, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 10?	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Nov 11, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 10?	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Nov 11, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 10?	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Nov 11, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 11?	59¢	59%	2.3¢	—	82%	Nov 12, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 11?	51¢	51%	2.4¢	—	98%	Nov 12, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 11?	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Nov 12, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 11?	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Nov 12, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 11?	17¢	17%	1.3¢	—	34%	Nov 12, 13:00 UTC
Highest temperature in San Francisco on November 11?	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Nov 12, 13:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.